Las 10 posibles soluciones al conflicto árabe-israelí

El conflicto árabe-israelí, dicho de esa forma y en ese orden, no de forma caprichosa sino respondiendo a una lógica que hace referencia a los múltiples estados con mayoría árabe en la región por un lado, e Israel con su minoría árabe y la población palestina de Cisjordania y Gaza por otro, no ha podido resolverse hasta el momento ni por medio de la guerra ni con la firma de un acuerdo permanente de paz.

Las razones de estos fracasos son muy complejas y los objetivos de las dirigencias políticas involucradas divergentes, pero nadie hasta ahora ha podido encauzar el problema ni ha logrado imaginar una solución practicable.

Es por esto que propongo a continuación un listado exhaustivo de opciones posibles de pared a pared, de extremo a extremo, pasando por toda una gama de alternativas intermedias de compromiso alcanzable, no para decir cuál sería mejor o peor, ya que se trata de una cuestión de intereses nacionales y no de verdades incuestionables, sino para tener a la vista un panorama completo de posibilidades.

  1. Que Israel deje de existir y la población judía local se reduzca a una minoría.
  2. Que se cree una confederación llamada “Israel” desde el Jordán hasta el Mediterráneo que incluya a judíos, musulmanes y cristianos de distintos orígenes y que todos tengan igualdad de derechos en un estado multiétnico.
  3. Que haya dos estados: Israel y Palestina y que los judíos puedan vivir solo en Israel, pero los árabes en ambos estados.
  4. Que haya dos estados: Israel y Palestina, y que ambos países tengan minorías sustanciales de la mayoría poblacional que hay en el otro.
  5. Que haya dos estados con amplio intercambio poblacional pero poco contacto civil.
  6. Que haya dos estados pero que el palestino tenga ciertas limitaciones en temas de seguridad.
  7. Que sólo siga existiendo el Estado de Israel, pero los enclaves de Cisjordania y Gaza mantengan una autonomía considerable que sea monitoreada por Egipto y Jordania.
  8. Que el Estado de Israel anexe amplias extensiones de territorio en Judea y Samaria y los colonice, dejando enclaves árabes sueltos y autogobernados por sus clanes.
  9. Que Israel anexe todo Cisjordania y Gaza e implante una política férrea de control sobre las poblaciones árabes palestinas fomentando su emigración.
  10. Que Israel reconquiste en una guerra todos los asentamientos y poblaciones árabes de Cisjordania y Gaza, y expulse a la población palestina de esos territorios hacia Jordania y Egipto.

Me he limitado a enumerar, sin juicios de valor, los elementos básicos de cada “solución” que abiertamente o no sostienen sectores desde la extrema izquierda hasta la extrema derecha, dentro y fuera de Israel y los territorios palestinos.

La idea es abrir el debate y analizar qué coyuntura mundial llevaría la realidad hacia cada uno de estos escenarios, más allá de cuál sería el más deseable para cada grupo.

 

Por Daniel Liberman
Vía Aurora

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