Operación “Amanecer”: Las ventajas, desventajas y preguntas abiertas. Por Tamir Hayman

Operación “Amanecer”: Las ventajas, desventajas y preguntas abiertas
Operación “Amanecer”: Las ventajas, desventajas y preguntas abiertas

La Operación «Amanecer» comenzó durante una apertura muy exitosa. Este es un logro inusual: frustrar a los altos funcionarios terroristas durante una realidad tensa, una «sorpresa dentro de las tensiones». A su vez requiere crear una falsa representación de la pasividad, una representación que ha recibido muchas críticas en los últimos días.

El oficial que fue eliminado, Tisir Jabari, es uno de los comandantes de la Yihad Islámica más importantes y de más alto rango en la Franja de Gaza. No cuenta con un reemplazo inmediato con autoridad. Además, el hecho de que el “Ministro de Defensa” de la Yihad, Akram Ajouri, y el jefe de la Yihad, Ziad Nakhallah, se encuentren en Irán, constituye un precedente. Ha surgido una crisis en la cadena de mando y control de la organización.

Leer más – Israel respondió al ataque de la Yihad Islámica

La ventaja por el momento es la humillación, la demora y la falta de coordinación del operativo yihadista. La desventaja: un mecanismo de terminación más complejo y un entorno que alienta fuertemente la escalada en torno al liderazgo de la yihad.

Las principales preguntas que ahora surgen son: ¿Se unirá Hamás? ¿Cómo responderá Hezbollah ¿Cómo Israel puede terminar en la cima de la operación y no entrar en una campaña larga y agotadora? ¿Y qué pasará en las ciudades mixtas (judeo-árabes, que suelen ser afectadas por episodios de guerra?

Debe recordarse que los eventos operativos no se repiten, siempre hay cambios. Por lo cual se debe tener cuidado al intentar reproducir las operaciones anteriores. Hamás no participó en la operación «Cinturón Negro». Le resultará difícil volver a ello. Asimismo, en «Guardian de las murallas» las ciudades ciudades mixtas se afectaron, pero en este caso no hay un componente de Jerusalén como acelerador en las etapas iniciales del evento, como factor incitador.

Leer más – Llamado de emergencia para los adiestradores de perros operativos

Fuente: Hatzad Hasheni


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