Por Damian Szvalb
En esta entrevista para Vis a Vis, el analista de política internacional, Julian Schvindlerman, analiza la compleja situación en Medio Oriente: desde el rol de Estados Unidos y Rusia en la guerra en Siria hasta si Israel puede involucrase en un enfrentamiento armado con el ejército de Al Asad. También se mete de lleno en la actualidad del conflicto entre israelíes y palestinos.
-¿Cómo evalúas la escalada en la tensión entre Israel y Siria de los últimos días? ¿Crees que Israel podría involucrarse militarmente en el conflicto sirio?
En el marco de la gran guerra civil e internacional que azota a Siria, se vieron choques entre el ejército sirio y los grupos rebeldes en zonas próximas a Israel. Los Altos del Golán han padecido efectos colaterales intensos, con ocho proyectiles de mortero cayendo en la zona el último mes, lo que provocó varios ataques de represalia de la aviación israelí sobre la artillería del régimen de Assad y Siria lanzó dos misiles tierra-aire a aviones israelíes que estaban dando respuesta a una agresión. Todo esto sugiere que el riesgo de una confrontación directa más amplia es real, pero a la vez, no creo que Israel o Damasco deseen enredarse en una guerra inter-estatal. Esta ha sido una de las fronteras de Israel más calmas en décadas, a diferencia de la que limita con Gaza o el Líbano, o Cisjordania misma. El gobierno sirio recuerda el resultado de sus guerras anteriores con Jerusalem, es sólo que en esta coyuntura convulsionada los combates han derrapado hacia el estado judío, forzándolo a responder de manera focalizada. Existe a la vez un canal de diálogo entre Jerusalem y el Kremlin para minimizar, o mejor aún evitar, que las luchas sirias se desvíen hacia Israel.
-¿Cómo interpretás el rol que está jugando Rusia en la región en general?
Rusia quiere renacer geopolíticamente y el Medio Oriente le ofrece un área de injerencia importante. Sus lazos con Irán, a quien ha vendido el más avanzado sistema de misiles tierra-aire, y su involucramiento militar en el territorio sirio, para preservar al régimen anti-occidental de Assad, dan cuenta de la política asertiva de Rusia en la región. Moscú ha tomado nota del repliegue político y militar norteamericano de la zona y aspira a ganar la mayor influencia política allí. Sus invasiones de Georgia y Ucrania de años pasados evidencian una pulsión imperial preocupante que trasciende las fronteras del Medio Oriente.
-Teniendo en cuenta las gestiones de Moscú para realizar una cumbre entre Bibi y Abbas, ¿crees que Putin quiere ocupar el papel que durante décadas ostentó EEUU en el conflicto entre Israel y los palestinos?
Ciertamente Moscú pretende eso. La Rusia de Vladimir Putin puja por recuperar el espacio geopolítico perdido en el Medio Oriente tras el desmoronamiento de la URSS en 1989 y el espacio palestino-israelí es focal para la región. Dudo que Estados Unidos ceda su papel dominante en la arena palestino-israelí, pero luce probable que Putin quiera ese rol para sí mismo. Hace poco trascendió que el presidente palestino Mahmoud Abbas fue un espía soviético en Siria durante los años de la Guerra Fría, lo cual adiciona un condimento político picante al triángulo Rusia-AP-Israel. De cualquier forma, el gobierno israelí confía más en Washington que en Moscú para este rol mediador, inclusive con un ocupante en la Casa Blanca tan ideológicamente hostil a Israel como lo es el presidente Barack Obama.
-¿Cómo imaginas las políticas de Trump y Clinton hacia el Medio Oriente? ¿Crees que van a continuar «desenganchándose» de la región?
Trump es impredecible. Si bien tiene gruesos puntos de diferenciación con la política de la Administración Obama hacia el Medio Oriente, también comparte una visión reacia en torno al involucramiento militar de su país allí. Trump declara no querer enviar tropas a la región, lo que lo acerca a Obama, pero se aleja al criticar la gestión del actual presidente en Siria, Libia e Irak. Trump, imagino, desacelerará la desconexión norteamericana del Medio Oriente -y de hecho, del mundo- pero él es una incógnita como candidato en múltiples áreas, incluso en esta.
-¿Cómo ves la estabilidad política de Bibi? En las últimas semanas hubo algunas crisis que pusieron en tensión su coalición.
Siempre ha habido crisis en las coaliciones de gobierno en Israel. Por eso legendaria -y exageradamente- alguien ha dicho que Israel no tiene política externa, sino interna. Bibi ha casi gobernado ya por más tiempo que ningún otro líder en la historia del país y seguramente sabrá maniobrar en las aguas turbulentas de la política local. Las crisis son parte de la vida política israelí. Igualmente, gobiernos han caído en el pasado y eso podría volver a ocurrir.
-Desde que asumió en 2009, Bibi siempre dijo que su prioridad era Irán, el verdadero peligro existencial para Israel. ¿Crees que después del acuerdo entre Irán y EEUU, Bibi debería insistir en esa estrategia o tendría que cambiar ese enfoque y centrar su atención en, por ejemplo, el tema palestino?
Creo que el premier israelí considera que el Irán de los ayatolás sigue siendo la principal amenaza existencial que enfrenta Israel y que la disputa con los palestinos es secundaria en letalidad. El Pacto Nuclear entre las potencias e Irán ha aislado a Israel en su protesta contra el mismo y ha abierto las puertas a la legitimación del teocrático, patrocinador de terrorismo y fanático Irán en la comunidad internacional. A la vez, ha acercado a Israel al mundo árabe sunita, un desarrollo inesperado y auspicioso, como consecuencia del empoderamiento de Irán. Esto potencialmente puede revertir las premisas de la negociación: resolver el conflicto con los palestinos como antesala a la normalización de lazos con el mundo árabe. Ahora podría perseguirse el camino inverso, quizás. En lo concerniente al pacto existente, Netanyahu debería seguir insistiendo en que haya una verificación sólida en la implementación del acuerdo nuclear y en asegurarse que las penalidades contempladas sean impuestas a Irán en caso de violaciones.
El conflicto palestino-israelí es intractable, vale decir, irresoluble, al menos en los términos en que ha estado planteado desde su advenimiento: el repudio psicológico árabe-palestino a la existencia de un estado judío en aquél lugar del orbe. Aun hoy día el gobierno palestino se niega a renunciar al llamado “derecho” al retorno palestino y reúsa aceptar a Israel como un estado judío. Tras casi un cuarto de siglo de diplomacia y apuesta al diálogo inaugurado en los Acuerdos de Oslo de 1993, la situación sigue estancada. Y si bien es una disputa grave que requiere una solución, no representa una amenaza existencial a la supervivencia física de Israel. Ergo, poner la atención en esto a expensas de la verdadera amenaza, que es un Irán en camino al arma nuclear, me parecería un desacierto. Aun así, creo que Israel deberá lidiar con ambos problemas en simultáneo.
-El año que viene se cumplen 50 años de la guerra del 67. ¿No considerás que la no resolución del conflicto con los palestinos puede poner en tensión a Israel como Estado judío y democrático?
Esta es una espada de Damócles que ha pendido sobre los israelíes por largo tiempo. La nación aspira a mantenerse democrática y judía a la vez, y podrá ser ambas cosas como ha podido hasta ahora, sólo que la irresolución del conflicto con los palestinos atentará contra el equilibrio buscado. Obviamente sería ideal que se hallase una solución pacífica a este conflicto longevo, por la paz en sí misma, y por las consideraciones demográficas, pero realmente se requieren dos para bailar el tango y yo estoy convencido que la ausencia de la paz ha sido históricamente más una responsabilidad palestina que israelí.
La denominada “bomba demográfica” es real, sin embargo, las últimas cifras dadas por la Oficina Centra de Estadísticas de Israel ofrecen un mapa no tan desolador. En la última década, las tasas de natalidad entre las poblaciones judías y árabes de Israel han llegado cerca de la paridad, muy lejos de la gran brecha de hace una década, de acuerdo a los datos oficiales publicados en noviembre del año pasado. Los guarismos mostraron que, para finales de 2014 y en promedio, se podía esperar que las mujeres judías israelíes dieran a luz a 3.11 hijos, en comparación con 3.17 hijos entre las mujeres árabes-israelíes. A principios de la década de 2000 las cifras se situaron en 4.3 hijos en promedio para las mujeres árabes-israelíes y solo 2.6 para las mujeres judías israelíes. Esto minimiza la dimensión del problema demográfico en Israel.
Pero el factor demográfico en Cisjordania (ya no en Gaza pues Israel se retiró de ahí) inclina todavía la balanza para el lado palestino. Lo que queda claro es que no se puede pedir a Israel que encoja el tamaño de sus fronteras y acepte a millones de refugiados palestinos según piden los gobernantes palestinos. Ese reclamo debe ser removido de la ecuación y debe estudiarse solamente la situación de los israelíes y los palestinos en Cisjordania como está hoy día, sin los nubarrones de una invasión popular masiva. Sólo entonces podrán los israelíes considerar más concesiones territoriales.
Que situacion tan extraña…
Siempre se dijo que Israel tiene armas nucleares desde los años ’60.
O sea que Israel es una potencia nuclear desde hace mas de 70 años.
Sin embargo Iran no tiene miedo de que Israel lance sobre Irán una o varias bombas atómicas.
O sea que resumiendo, la situacion es ésta:
Israel tiene miedo de que Iran , que aún no tiene armas nucleares, las consiga.
Irán NO TIENE MIEDO de que Israel, que YA CUENTA CON BOMBAS NUCLEARES, decida usarlas contra ellos, y pese a todo continúan con su plan para destruir a Israel.
Si alguien entiende como funciona esta tremenda asimetría , que por favor me lo explique…
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