¿Mediación francesa o egipcia en Israel y Palestina? Por Federico Gaon

El último 3 de junio, Francia organizó una jornada para promover un acercamiento entre israelíes y palestinos. Frente a la indisposición de los representantes litigantes, la cumbre no convocó a ninguna de las partes enfrentadas. El evento, encabezado por el presidente galo François Hollande, reunió a los principales actores interesados en la resolución del conflicto, incluidos los Estados Unidos, la Unión Europea y funcionarios de diversos Estados, algunos más pro-Israel y otros más pro-Palestina.

Como era de esperar, el evento fue a lo sumo simbólico, y no se estableció ninguna decisión relevante. Israel se refirió al acontecimiento como «una oportunidad perdida» y, en contraste, la Autoridad Nacional Palestina felicitó a los organizadores por presionar al primero. Pero, al fin y al cabo, no sucedió nada remarcable, nada inesperado. Tal es la intrascendencia de la jornada que Alemania, Rusia y Gran Bretaña no enviaron a sus ministros de Exteriores.

Por otro lado, en tanto los esfuerzos diplomáticos de las potencias han fracaso, Egipto se perfila como un posible mediador entre israelíes y palestinos. Esta es concretamente la ambición de su presidente, Abdel Fattah al Sisi, quien mantiene una relación cordial con las partes enfrentadas. Al Sisi busca que Benjamin Netanyahu y Mahmoud Abbas se sienten juntos en El Cairo y espera, si estos logran un avance, ganarse los laureles debidos y el reconocimiento de la comunidad internacional. En vistas de las circunstancias, cabe preguntarse quién es mejor mediador. ¿El presidente francés o el rais egipcio?

Me inclino decididamente por la segunda opción, por la mera razón de que Francia no tiene credibilidad a los ojos de los funcionarios israelíes. Para situar las relaciones en contexto, Francia es diplomáticamente hostil a Israel desde 1967. De hecho, Francia es el principal antagonista de Israel dentro de la coyuntura occidental.

A partir de la independencia argelina, Francia buscó revertir su política hacia el mundo árabe. Al cabo de pocos años, bajo la dirección de Charles de Gaulle, la República Francesa pasó de ser una potencia colonialista a ser una campeona de la descolonización. Para reestablecer relaciones con la mayoría de los países de Medio Oriente, desencantados con el papel histórico de Francia como tutora de los asuntos árabes, París se distanció decididamente de Israel.

Con base en esta consideración de índole pragmática, de 1967 en adelante, Francia denuncia a Israel como colonialista y adopta posiciones muy duras en su contra en las fotos internacionales. Desde lo discursivo, la posición gala se ampara en la expansión territorial de Israel como consecuencia de la Guerra de los Seis Días. Pero desde la óptica de la política real, la postura se justifica en la necesidad de acceder al petróleo árabe, y subsiguientes oportunidades estratégicas y comerciales. En este sentido, cabe destacar que Saddam Hussein encontró en Francia a una aliada fiel, lo suficientemente dispuesta como para construirle al régimen iraquí dos reactores nucleares (con fines no pacíficos). Además de cultivar relaciones con Saddam, durante los años ochenta y noventa, París amparó a Yasir Arafat y a Muammar Gaddafi.

En tiempos más recientes, Francia acompañó los votos condenatorios hacia Israel en las Naciones Unidas, impulsados en gran medida por los países árabes. Entre otras decisiones, esto implicó que Francia apoyara mociones para etiquetar a Israel como Estado ocupador. Sin embargo, el insulto más insufrible llegó en abril de este año, cuando Francia acompañó una resolución de la Unesco que ignora el vínculo entre la Explanada de las Mezquitas y el Muro de los Lamentos con el pueblo judío. Más allá de que la Explanada es en sí un remanente del Templo (judío) de Herodes, para la Unesco y para Francia, este santo complejo milenario es pertenencia exclusiva del patrimonio islámico.

Hay quienes dirían que, hoy en día, el pragmatismo detrás de la política antiisraelí que ejerce Francia ha cambiado de eje. Pero también están quienes argumentan que mucho de esto viene dado por un antisemitismo latente en la sociedad francesa. En todo caso, es difícil desmerecer el argumento que vincula a Quai d’Orsay (el Ministerio de Exteriores) con la banlieue (el término para designar al suburbio parisino). El 25% de la juventud francesa se identifica con el islam y el 7,5% del país es musulmán. El dato viene al caso, porque ha quedado en evidencia que la cuestión palestino-israelí molesta a este nicho poblacional y las autoridades francesas ya no saben qué hacer. Las protestas contra Israel en las calles parisinas, además de claramente antisemitas, terminan en actos de violencia y vandalismo. Por ello, para explicar la postura francesa, a los intereses geopolíticos de esta hay que sumar consideraciones de gran trascendencia doméstica, acaso ausentes décadas atrás.

En contraste con Francia, Egipto, lejos de ser la opción menos mala, tiene el potencial de llevar a cabo una moderación más templada o, por lo pronto, más aceptable para Jerusalén y Ramala. Como primera consideración, Israel y Egipto se enfrentan a las mismas amenazas. Ambos Estados comparten la misma preocupación por las actividades islamistas y la beligerancia sin precedentes por parte de actores no estatales religiosamente motivados. Esta afinidad ha dado paso a una cooperación sin precedentes en materia de seguridad. Además, tanto el oficialismo como la oposición israelí han dado su visto bueno a la mediación egipcia.

En lo que respecta a lo simbólico, es interesante mencionar que, mientras Francia decidió provocar a Israel (tras su voto en la Unesco), Egipto optó por modificar los libros de textos escolares para incluir una imagen con Menachem Begin y Anwar Sadat negociando la paz. Esta referencia es sutil y no tiene parangón en el mundo árabe, donde a los niños se les inculca que Israel es una entidad sin razón de ser. Prueba de ello, en consonancia con estos prejuicios, algunos egipcios prominentes criticaron el enfoque del Presidente, que es pacífico con «el enemigo sionista».

La segunda consideración es que la Autoridad Nacional Palestina le dijo que sí a Al Sisi. Abbas, en realidad, no tendría razón para oponerse. Existe sentimentalismo (más abstracto que tangible, pero una impresión al fin) en torno al papel histórico de Egipto como campeón de la causa palestina y lo cierto es que Egipto es la principal nación árabe.

En términos generales, ningún acuerdo macro regional tendría sentido sin el visto bueno de El Cairo y, por descontado, los palestinos no tienen la independencia para objetar. Al Sisi es, al mismo tiempo, una figura respetada en el Golfo, particularmente en Arabia Saudita, donde es merecedor de un trato preferencial. Pese a posturas divergentes en lo que respecta a Siria, el régimen castrense de Al Sisi es visto como una traba efectiva a la proliferación de los movimientos islámicos, adversos a las monarquías árabes y al papel de la casa saudita como custodia de La Meca y Medina.

En este aspecto, el rais egipcio cuenta con suficientes credenciales como para integrar a los sauditas a las negociaciones, aunque sea de un modo clandestino. Este aproximamiento serviría a los intereses de todas las partes involucradas y, eventualmente, podría conducir a negociaciones formales bajo el formato de una conferencia de paz favorecida por las potencias.

Ahora bien, incluso si tal hipotética reunión entre israelíes y palestinos tiene lugar en Egipto, este año o el entrante, esta no se focalizará en alcanzar un acuerdo permanente. El contexto regional de Medio Oriente es sumamente adverso a la ilusión de tomar riesgos por la paz. La cumbre de Al Sisi se concentraría, en cambio, en generar algún tipo de mecanismo provisorio para alcanzar algún modus vivendi —lo suficientemente favorable para los palestinos de Cisjordania. Para que esto suceda, Israel debería definir un paquete de concesiones que Al Sisi pueda «venderles» a los palestinos y, no menos importante, a los sauditas, también. Los comentaristas ignoran muy a menudo la influencia que ostenta Arabia Saudita en los asuntos de las naciones sunitas.

Por estos motivos, en suma, quedará por verse si Al Sisi logra alcanzar su ambición de mediador y consigue comprometer a las partes involucradas. De momento, puede decirse que el prospecto de una mediación egipcia ofrece más auspicios que una intervención francesa, que no goza de aceptación en Israel, ni tampoco de mucha confianza entre los principales actores internacionales.

Fuente; Infobae

Autor: Federico Gaon

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  84. 다양한 테마의 슬롯을 즐길 수 있는 250개 이상의 게임으로 이루어진 프라그마틱 플레이의 슬롯 포트폴리오를 전 세계 시장에서 즐겨보세요.
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  88. 현재의 프라그마틱 게임은 iGaming 분야에서 선도적이고 표준화된 콘텐츠를 제공하는 주요 제공 업체입니다.
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    프라그마틱 무료

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  97. iGaming 업계의 주역, 프라그마틱 게임은 모바일 중심의 혁신적이고 표준화된 콘텐츠를 제공하는 선도적인 제공 업체입니다.
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  112. 현재 프라그마틱 게임은 iGaming에서 선도적이며 독창적이고 표준화된 콘텐츠를 제공하는 주요 제공 업체 중 하나입니다.
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  113. 혁신적이고 표준화된 iGaming 콘텐츠를 제공하는 최신 프라그마틱 게임은 슬롯, 라이브 카지노, 빙고 등 다양한 제품을 통해 고객에게 다양한 경험을 제공합니다.
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    프라그마틱 게임

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