Israel logra vincularse con países africanos musulmanes

El anuncio de que Guinea está reanudando relaciones con Israel casi medio siglo después de su ruptura parece una pieza trivial de buenas noticias. Por supuesto, Guinea es un país africano pobre y relativamente poco importante. Pero el 85 por ciento de su población es musulmán, y algunos países de mayoría musulmana sin embargo, han estado dispuestos a establecer relaciones abiertas con Israel; en consecuencia, su decisión podría animar a otros a hacer lo mismo.

Guinea también fue el primer país de África que rompió relaciones con Israel después de la Guerra de los Seis Días de 1967. Por tanto con estas razones, la renovación de los lazos toma el relieve del grado de seriedad en que se está implementando una nueva estrategia israelí encaminada a mejorar las relaciones con el mundo no occidental, y ha comenzado a dar frutos.
El anuncio de Guinea viene de la mano del éxito del viaje del primer ministro Biniamín Netanyahu a África a principios de este mes. Aspectos destacados de ese viaje incluyen los anuncios por parte de Kenia y Etiopía -dos estados africanos aliados a Israel – de que van a apoyar a Israel para recibir la condición de estado observador en la Unión Africana, así como el anuncio de Tanzania que planea abrir una embajada en Israel, 21 años después de la renovación de las relaciones.
Los medios de comunicación israelíes también han informado que los funcionarios de otros tres países africanos de mayoría musulmana que no tienen relaciones con Israel -Mali, Chad y Somalia, recientemente hicieron visitas secretas, lo que indica que la perspectiva de otros países musulmanes siguiendo el ejemplo de Guinea no es nada inconcebible.
De hecho, la semana pasada, el director general del Ministerio de Asuntos Exteriores, Dori Gold, visitó Chad para una reunión con su presidente. Esta perspectiva se hace más plausible por la mejora de las relaciones de Israel con los estados árabes más importantes. Como señalaron varios líderes africanos durante el viaje de Netanyahu, no tiene mucho sentido en los países africanos que sigan dando la espalda a Israel cuando algunos de los países árabes que originalmente los empujaron a hacerlo ahora tienen relaciones con Israel, ya sean abiertas o encubiertas.

África y Asia: una política de largo plazo
Hay dos razones por las que Israel atribuye tanta importancia a sus relaciones cálidas con África, y ambas tienen más que ver con el largo plazo que con el corto plazo. La primera es la necesidad de diversificar sus socios comerciales. En la actualidad, aproximadamente un tercio de las exportaciones de Israel van a Europa. Pero la combinación de desaceleración de la economía de Europa y su creciente hostilidad hacia Israel hace de esta fuerte dependencia de Europa una amenaza potencial para el futuro económico de Israel. África es el continente más pobre del mundo, pero está experimentando un rápido crecimiento económico, y muchos de los campos de especialización de Israel encajan bien con las necesidades de África, incluyendo la tecnología agrícola, la conservación del agua, y la lucha contra el terrorismo. Así, mediante la ampliación y mejora de sus relaciones diplomáticas con los países africanos, Israel espera ampliar sus relaciones comerciales con el tiempo también.
La segunda, como dijo Netanyahu durante su viaje a África, es la esperanza de poner fin a la mayoría automática contra Israel en los foros internacionales. Como él reconoció fácilmente, esto bien podría llevar décadas; arraigados patrones de voto no cambian durante la noche. Sin embargo, el cambio está lejos de ser imposible: Véase, por ejemplo, en el 2014 el voto del Consejo de Seguridad sobre el establecimiento de un plazo para el Estado palestino, que fue derrotado porque los palestinos no lograron reunir el requisito de nueve votos. Dos de las cinco abstenciones cruciales procedían de África (Ruanda y Nigeria).
Incluso si los países africanos no pueden sin embargo cambiar el balance de fuerzas del minúsculo número de votantes a favor de Israel, simplemente moverlos desde el bloque anti-Israel a la columna de la abstención podría aliviar la dependencia de Israel del veto estadounidense en el Consejo de Seguridad. Dado que las resoluciones del Consejo de Seguridad necesitan un mínimo de nueve votos «sí» para que puedan pasar, una abstención tiene el mismo efecto que un «no» para los países sin poder de veto.
También hay que señalar que de forma fiable la abstención sería suficiente para hacer de los países africanos mejores votantes aliados que aproximadamente la mitad de la Unión Europea: los países de la UE casi nunca votan con Israel, y algunos votan regularmente en su contra.

Las relaciones crecientes de Israel con África, obviamente, se derivan en parte de algo que está más allá de su control: el ascenso del terror islamista. Como varios líderes africanos reconocieron abiertamente durante el viaje de Netanyahu, la asistencia contra el terrorismo es actualmente lo que más quieren de Israel. Y si los informes de las visitas de funcionarios de Mali, Chad y Somalia son verdaderos, es una apuesta segura que también estaban buscando ayuda contra el terrorismo; los tres tienen serios problemas con el terrorismo islamista.
La mejora también se debe en parte a la política de larga data de Israel de otorgar la ayuda incluso a los países con los que no tiene relaciones, lo que a veces tiene un fruto tardío. Por ejemplo, los funcionarios israelíes dijeron que uno de los factores en la decisión de Guinea para renovar las relaciones fue la ayuda médica que Israel dio durante la crisis del Ébola hace dos años.

Un ejemplo destacado de Asia, otro continente en el que recientemente los lazos con Israel recientemente han florecido, es Singapur. Singapur pidió a Israel entrenar a su ejército a mediados de la década de 1960, antes incluso de que los dos países establecieran las relaciones, y este hecho fue ocultado durante décadas. Pero el mes pasado, como señaló Elliott Abrams, Singapur unió fuerzas con la India y Ruanda -el tercer país en el club de los aliados africanos cercanos de Israel-, para ayudar a Israel a ganar los votos no alineados que necesitaba para ganar la presidencia de un comité clave de la ONU.

Israel ya no puede depender sólo de Occidente

La tercera razón para la disminución del aislamiento de Israel, sin embargo, es una decisión deliberada por parte de los sucesivos gobiernos de Netanyahu de que el país no puede permitirse, ni económica ni diplomáticamente, mantener sus relaciones casi exclusivamente con Occidente, ignorando en gran parte del resto del mundo. Avigdor Lieberman, actual ministro de Defensa, hizo un esfuerzo importante por mejorar las relaciones de Israel con África y Asia durante su mandato como ministro de Asuntos Exteriores, y desde su salida, el ministerio ha continuado esta política bajo el liderazgo de Dori Gold (Netanyahu es actualmente el titular del ministerio de Exteriores).
Esto constituye un cambio importante en la estrategia de Israel, y que se deriva de una conclusión sencilla: las relaciones con Europa, inevitablemente, están desgastadas por el hecho de que lo que la UE pretende de Israel es algo que Israel no puede otorgar. A saber, un acuerdo de paz con los líderes que han negado sistemáticamente todas las ofertas de Israel y en la actualidad se niegan incluso a negociar con él. La actitud de Europa podría cambiar algún día, pero Israel no puede contar con eso. Por lo tanto, debe desarrollar fuentes alternativas de comercio y apoyo diplomático como una póliza de seguro.
El restablecimiento de las relaciones con Guinea es otra señal de que esta estrategia está empezando a dar sus frutos. Y eso es una muy buena noticia para Israel.

Fuente: Evelyncgordon.com

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