Las primeras encuestas publicadas este jueves tras el nacimiento de la alianza electoral Kajol Laban (Azul y Blanco) entre los partidos Hosen LeYisrael de Benny Gantz y Yesh Atid de Yair Lapid lo muestran con una clara ventaja sobre el actual primer ministro de Israel, Benjamín Netanyahu.
De acuerdo a los resultados arrojados por la encuesta publicada por el noticiero del Canal 13, la unión de Kajol Laban alcanzaría un total de 36 escaños frente a los 26 que obtendría el partido Likud de Netanyahu si las elecciones se realizaran hoy.
La unión, también forjada hoy, entre los partidos árabes de izquierda Hadash y Ta’al obtendría un total de 10 escaños; la unión de derecha entre Habait Hayehudi y Otzma Yehudí alcanzaría 8 escaños; el partido religioso Yahadut Hatorá obtendría 7 escaños; el partido religioso Shas obtendría 6 escaños; tanto el partido de izquierda HaAvodá, y los partidos de derecha Yisrael Beitenu y Hayemin Hehadash obtendrían 5 escaños; mientras que el centrista Kulanu, el partido de izquierda Meretz y la unión de los partidos árabes Ra’am y Balad obtendrían apenas 4 escaños.
El noticiero también preguntó a los encuestados en qué lado del espectro político creen que se coloca la nueva alianza: un 46% dijo verlo como un partido de centro; un 31% dijo que es de izquierda; mientras que un 8% lo ve como un partido de derecha; un 15% dijo no saber.
Pese a la ventaja que Gantz y Lapid obtendrían frente al Likud, de mantenerse esta proyección de resultados, un bloque de derecha de 63 escaños con Netanyahu a la cabeza podría conformar gobierno, frente al posible bloque de centro-izquierda de sus rivales, que apenas alcanzaría 45 escaños.
Mientras que la encuesta realizada por el noticiero del Canal 12 dio como resultado que Kajol Laban alcanzaría igualmente 36 escaños y el Likud alcanzaría un total de 30 escaños.
En esta encuesta, HaAvodá obtendría 8 escaños; Yahadut Hatorá obtendría 7 escaños; los partidos Hayemin Hahadash, la unión de Hadash y Balad, así como Ta’al obtendrían 6 escaños cada uno; el Shas obtendría 5 escaños; mientras que la unión de Habait Hayehudi con Otzma Yehudit, Meretz, y Kulanu obtendrían 4 escaños.
De conformarse así la Knéset, el bloque de derecha conformado por Netanyahu se quedaría en el umbral límite de poder formar gobierno, con un total de 60 escaños y haciéndole falta solamente uno más. El bloque de centro-izquierda que Gantz y Lapid pudieran reunir alcanzaría apenas los 48 escaños.
En tanto que los resultados arrojados por la encuesta realizada por la cadena pública Kan estimaron que Kajol Laban obtendría 35 escaños, superando por apenas tres escaños al Likud, que se quedaría con 32 escaños.
La coalición árabe Lista Unida obtendría un total de 11 escaños; HaAvodá obtendría un total de 8 escaños; Hayemin Hehadash obtendría 8 escaños; tanto Habait Hayehudi, Yahadut Hatora y Shas alcanzarían 6 escaños; Yisrael Beitenu lograría 5 escaños, y finalmente el Meretz apenas lograría 4 escaños.
Los datos de esta encuesta muestran que ni el partido centrista Gesher, ni el derechista Zehut, Kulanu, ni el recién fundado partido Maguen, ni la unión de los partidos árabes Balad y Ra’am lograrían superar el umbral mínimo del 3.25% de la votación para lograr siquiera un escaño en la Knéset.
Con estos resultados, la pauta se repite: Netanyahu seguiría manteniendo la posibilidad de formar gobierno ya que el bloque de derecha alcanzaría un estrecho margen de un total de 62 escaños, frente al bloque de centro-izquierda que se mantendría por debajo de los 50 escaños.
Bajo el acuerdo electoral con el que se formó Kajol Laban, los candidatos de Yesh Atid ocupan 13 de los primeros 30 puestos de la lista, mientras que Hosen LeYisrael obtendría los siguientes 12, y el partido Telem de Moshe Ya’alon, que se unió a Gantz previamente, tendrá cuatro puestos.
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