Elecciones en Israel: ¿Qué dice la encuesta más reciente?

Elecciones en Israel
Elecciones en Israel

A pocos días de las elecciones en Israel, el partido Likud del primer ministro Benjamín Netanyahu continúa viendo un impulso en las preferencias, pero ni él ni sus rivales políticos tienen todavía un camino claro para formar un gobierno.

La última encuesta electoral publicada por la cadena pública israelí Kan en esta campaña indicó que el Likud obtendría 31 escaños si la votación se realizara hoy. Uno más de los que recibió el partido en la encuesta de la cadena a principios de esta semana. El Likud tiene 36 escaños en la saliente legislatura informó Enlace Judío.

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El Yesh Atid del líder de la oposición Yair Lapid obtendría 19 escaños, tres menos que a principios de semana.

La ganancia del Likud pareció producirse a expensas de los partidos rivales de derecha Yamina y Tikvá Jadashá, cada uno de los cuales obtuvo 9 escaños en la encuesta, la primera vez que ambos cayeron a una cifra de un solo dígito.

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La Lista Conjunta, alianza de partidos árabes israelíes, obtendría 8 escaños, al igual que el partido ultraortodoxo Shas.

El partido ultraortodoxo Yahadut Hatorá e Yisrael Beitenu obtendrían 7 escaños cada uno, mientras que el partido Avodá y Hatzionut Hadatit obtendrían 5 cada uno.

Pasando el umbral electoral con 4 escaños cada uno, estarían Kajol LavánMeretz y Ra’am.

La encuesta, realizada para Kan por el Instituto Kantar, incluyó una muestra representativa de 1,406 encuestados israelíes y tuvo un margen de error del 2.6 por ciento.

Los partidos que han descartado unirse a un gobierno liderado por Netanyahu obtendrían 56 escaños, sin contar a Bennett.

Juntos, el bloque de Netanyahu y sus aliados ShasYahadut Hatorá y Hatzionut Hadatit obtendrían 51 escaños. Incluso si Yamina se uniera a ellos, los partidos estarían cortos de los 61 escaños necesarios para una mayoría en la Knéset de 120 escaños.

Ra’am ha surgido como un potencial partido que pueda definir escenarios dramáticos. Se separó de la Lista Conjunta poco después de la convocatoria de las elecciones. Prometió adoptar un enfoque más pragmático que no descartara cooperar con cualquier coalición. Ya sea de derecha o de izquierda.

Las encuestas finales se publicarán el viernes, después de lo cual se prohíbe la publicación de nuevas encuestas según las leyes electorales israelíes.

Las próximas elecciones del 23 de marzo, las cuartas en dos años, se convocaron después de que el gobierno de coalición de Likud y Kajol Laván no lograron ponerse de acuerdo sobre un presupuesto antes de la fecha límite del 23 de diciembre.

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