Se trata de un acuerdo firmado en Ginebra el pasado día jueves entre EEUU, Rusia, China, Inglaterra y Alemania con Irán. Es un “acuerdo interino” hasta tanto se suscriba el definitivo el próximo 30 de junio.
Sus puntos principales son los siguientes:
1) Limitación de centrifugadoras para el enriquecimiento de uranio de las actuales 19.000 a 6.000 por 10 años. Se concentrarán en la Planta de Natanz mientras que la de Fordow será desmantelada y tranformada en un Centro de Investigación.
2) Reduccion del stock de uranio enriquecido de 10.000 kgs. A sólo 300 kgs. Por 15 años.
3) Tanto las centrifugadores como el stock de uranio excedentes serán almacenados en Irán en instalaciones bajo el control de la IAEA ( la Agencia internacional de control de la Energía nuclear).
4) Por 15 años , Irán no podrá construir ninguna facilidad adicional para el enriquecimiento de uranio
5) El “período crítico” para acumular suficiente material como para producir una bomba se extiende a 1 año, durante los primeros 10 años.
6) La IAEA tendrá completo acceso a las instalaciones nucleares iraníes por los próximos 25 años e Irán firmará el Protocolo Adicional al TNP ( tratado de no proliferación) por el cual se refuerzan los controles del tratado original.
7) Irán va a rediseñar su planta de Agua Pesada (para el procesamiento de Uranio) en Arak para producir solo radioisótopos. Los stocks de plutonio acumulados será sacados del país y no podrán acumularse stocks por 15 años.
8) La sanciones económicas existentes se levantará a medida que la IAEA verifique el cumplimiento de lo acordado y podrán volverse a poner en práctica si se viola lo acordado.
Israel y Arabia Saudita están en contra de lo suscripto por entender que irán podrá violar fácilmente los controles establecidos. Lo mismo opina la mayoria Republicana en el Congreso norteamericano.
El presidente Obama tiene facultades propias para firmar el acuerdo y para “suspender” las sanciones. El levantamiento total sólo puede hacerse por votación del Congreso.
Sin lugar a duda, el acuerdo es un paso muy importante para levantar uno de los peligros globales más graves que enfrentaba el planeta. Asimismo, blanqueará la cooperación que Irán está prestando para combatir al Estado Islámico (y que, seguramente, será incrementada) que hoy ocupa parte del territorio de Irak y de Siria.
También consolida la rebaja del precio del petróleo que ya cotiza por debajo de los u$ 50 dólares.
El verdadero alcance de esta negociación así como sus consecuencias finales sólo podrán evaluarse en el tiempo.
Por Diego Guelar. Es secretario de Relaciones Internacionales del PRO. Fue diputado nacional y embajador ante los Estados Unidos, Brasil y la Unión Europea.
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