Una semana de retrocesos para Hezbollah e Irán

Un ataque rebelde de la semana pasada en el pueblo de Jan Tuman, cerca de Aleppo, significó uno de los mayores retrocesos militares de la coalición extranjera chiita que pelea en nombre del presidente sirio Bashar al Assad.

El saldo de muertos entre las milicias iraníes, afganas y libanesas llegaría a 80 durante el ataque dirigido por el Frente al Nusra, ligado a Al Qaeda. Al menos 17 de ellos eran iraníes, uno de los mayores desastres en combate desde la guerra entra Irán e Irak.

«Recen por nosotros, no podemos irnos. Somos 83 en una sola habitación. Estamos esperando por el apoyo de la artillería para poder retirarnos», dijo un soldado iraní en un mensaje de Whatsapp que fue citado por el portal estatal Jaam-e-Jam. «Si Dios lo permite, seremos antes mártires que prisioneros», agregó.

Los hechos en Jan Tuman fueron seguidos por un aún mayor golpe a Irán y sus aliados: la noticia del viernes de la muerte del comandante de Hezbollah Mustafa Badredinne, quien dirigía las operaciones militares del grupo libanés en Siria.

No está claro como estos reveses afectarán el curso de la guerra que surgió de las protestas inspiradas por la primavera árabe en 2011. Antes de que Irán, Hezbollah y Rusia acudieran en ayuda de Assad, su poder parecía estar desapareciendo.

Estos golpes son evidencia del precio que pagan Irán y Hezbollah en Siria, y el del amplio rango de adversarios que enfrentan en una guerra con múltiples facciones que ha escalado de nuevo en las últimas semanas mientras la diplomacia liderada por la ONU fracasa.

Israel no perdió la oportunidad de eliminar a comandantes de Irán y Hezbollah en Siria durante el último año.

Hezbollah, un grupo chiita establecido por la Guardia Revolucionaria de Irán, dijo que Badreddine había muerto en una explosión cerca del aeropuerto de Damasco. Un oficial de Hezbollah culpó a Israel pero el gobierno israelí no hizo comentarios.

Mientras que otros enemigos en la insurgencia, que es predominantemente sunnita, celebraron la derrota de Irán en Jan Tuman que fue seguida de la pérdida del pueblo cercano de Al-Eis.

Otra explicación para las recientes derrotas podría ser que el apoyo aéreo ruso se redujo. Rusia estuvo lanzando ataques aéreos en apoyo de Assad por siete meses, pero también está involucrada en esfuerzos diplomáticos encarados por Estados Unidos y apoyó los ceses al fuego.

El Observatorio Sirio de los Derechos Humanos y un rebelde peleando en el área dijeron que la intensidad de los bombardeos rusos disminuyó. Eso podría ser un motivo de fricciones entre los miembros de la alianza que apoya a Assad, según dicen analistas del conflicto.

El ataque de Al Nusra y sus aliados en Jan Tuman tuvo fuertes repercusiones en Irán. Portales ligados a la Guardia Revolucionaria iraní publicaron los nombres y fotos de los 13 iraníes muertos. La mayoría de ellos eran de una unidad de la Guardia en la provincia de Mazandaran en el norte del país.

Había preocupaciones entre algunos oficiales iraníes y jefes militares de que el reporte de las bajas podría virar la opinión pública en contra de la intervención iraní en Siria.

Irán ya anunció la muerte de media docena de generales en Siria, y un número mucho mayor de otros oficiales, desde 2012.

Mientras que Hezbollah perdió cuatro líderes prominentes, incluyendo a Badreddine, cuñado del fallecido líder militar del grupo Imad Moughniyah, muerto en 2008.

Se estima que el grupo sufrió 1200 bajas entre sus tropas en Siria, donde sus altamente entrenadas guerrillas demostraron ser cruciales en su apoyo al ejército sirio.

Tom Perry / Babak Dehghanpisheh – Reuters

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